Strait of Hormuz Traffic Disruption Expected Until August or Later, Say Kalshi Traders

Traders on the Kalshi prediction platform now estimate that normal traffic flow through the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to resume until late summer or early fall. Despite a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, no clear timeline has emerged for reopening the vital shipping route or ending the U.S. naval blockade.

This delay matters because the Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, and prolonged disruption could impact energy markets and geopolitical stability. Traders currently assign a 57% probability that traffic will normalize by September 1, with odds for August hovering around 56%.

Why the Strait of Hormuz Remains Blocked

Although the U.S. and Iran have maintained a ceasefire, Iran has not indicated when it might reopen the strait, and the U.S. has not announced plans to lift its naval blockade. This stalemate keeps vessel traffic at reduced levels, far below normal volumes.

Kalshi defines normal traffic as a 7-day moving average of vessel transits crossing 60, based on data from IMF PortWatch. Current flows remain below this threshold, reflecting ongoing uncertainty.

Recent Developments Fuel Market Uncertainty

On May 4, Iranian state media claimed it struck a U.S. warship with missiles near the strait, forcing it to retreat, a claim denied by U.S. Central Command. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates reported intercepting Iranian missiles for the first time since the ceasefire began.

These conflicting reports and military actions have heightened tensions and contributed to traders pushing back their expectations for reopening the strait.

Shifting Market Predictions on Reopening Timeline

Just a week ago, traders anticipated the strait might reopen by July 1. However, the latest news and stalled negotiations have shifted sentiment, with the most likely reopening now expected in August or September.

• 57% chance traffic normalizes by September 1
• 56% chance traffic normalizes by August 1
• 76% chance traffic normalizes by January 1, 2027

Looking Ahead: What This Means for Global Markets

The prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could keep energy prices elevated and add volatility to global markets. Traders and policymakers will closely watch diplomatic efforts and military developments for signs of progress.

The latest headlines and lack of any breakthrough in negotiations between the two countries have made traders reassess when they think the Strait will open.—Davis Giangiulio, CNBC