OPEC+ Boosts Oil Output by 188,000 Barrels Per Day in First Meeting Without UAE

In its first meeting since the United Arab Emirates' unexpected departure, OPEC+ announced a production increase of 188,000 barrels per day for June. This adjustment comes as the cartel continues to navigate a complex oil market impacted by geopolitical conflicts and supply disruptions.

The decision to raise output, slightly less than last month's 206,000 barrels per day increase, reflects ongoing efforts by the remaining seven member countries to stabilize global oil markets despite challenges such as the Iran conflict and the closure of the vital Strait of Hormuz.

OPEC+ Presses Ahead Without UAE

OPEC+ confirmed a collective production increase of 188,000 barrels per day starting in June, excluding the output share of the UAE, which officially left the group on May 1. The seven remaining producers—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—are committed to supporting oil market stability through this adjustment.

Geopolitical Strains Impacting Oil Supply

Oil supply remains constrained due to the ongoing conflict involving Iran, which began on February 28. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for global oil and gas, has been effectively closed, choking off exports from the Middle East. This disruption has contributed to elevated oil prices, despite recent declines following Iran's updated peace proposal.

U.S. crude futures dropped 3% to $101.94 per barrel, while Brent crude fell nearly 2% to $108.17, though both benchmarks remain about 78% higher since the start of 2026.

UAE's Departure Sends Shockwaves Through OPEC+

The UAE's exit from OPEC+ has intensified concerns about production and market dynamics. As the cartel's third-largest producer, the UAE's decision followed a comprehensive review of its production policy and capacity, concluding that leaving the group aligns with its national interests.

Having played a pivotal role in OPEC's decisions for nearly six decades, the UAE's departure marks a significant shift in the cartel's composition and influence.

Diplomatic Developments and Market Outlook

Recent diplomatic efforts have introduced some optimism. Iran submitted an updated peace proposal to mediators in Pakistan, raising hopes for a potential settlement with the U.S. However, U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed caution, awaiting the exact terms and warning of possible renewed strikes if Iran fails to comply.

In their collective commitment to support oil market stability, the seven participating countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 188 thousand barrels per day from the additional voluntary adjustments announced in April 2023.—OPEC Statement

As OPEC+ adapts to these geopolitical and internal changes, the global oil market remains volatile. The group's ability to balance production amid member shifts and external conflicts will be critical in shaping energy prices and supply stability moving forward.