Apple Execs to Focus on China and Tariffs, Steer Clear of Foldable iPhone in Upcoming Earnings Call

Apple is gearing up for its earnings report scheduled after the market closes on Thursday, marking the first call since announcing major leadership changes. Longtime CEO Tim Cook will step down in September, with John Ternus, the senior vice president of hardware engineering, set to take the helm.

Market traders on Kalshi are nearly certain Apple will address topics like China and tariffs during the call, but they expect the company to avoid discussing its much-anticipated foldable iPhone. This call could provide insights into Apple's strategic focus amid evolving global trade dynamics and technological innovation.

Leadership Shift Sets the Stage for Apple's Earnings Call

Apple's upcoming earnings call is the first since the announcement that Tim Cook will be stepping down as CEO in September. John Ternus, who currently leads hardware engineering, will succeed him. This transition has heightened investor interest in the company's future direction.

China and Tariffs: The Foregone Topics

Traders on Kalshi assign a 98% probability that Apple will discuss China and a 96% chance it will address tariffs during the call. These topics remain critical due to Apple's extensive manufacturing ties and ongoing trade tensions impacting global supply chains.

AI and Streaming: Uncertain Mentions on the Horizon

There is speculation about whether Apple will mention Google's AI model Gemini, which it plans to integrate into its Apple Intelligence features. However, traders give this a modest 27% chance, reflecting Wall Street's view of Apple as lagging behind peers in AI development. Additionally, discussions about Apple's creator studio and streaming platform are anticipated but not guaranteed.

Foldable iPhone and Smart Glasses: What’s Being Left Out?

Despite ongoing rumors, traders believe Apple will largely avoid talking about foldable devices, assigning only a 9% chance the company will mention foldable iPhones. This follows reports of delays in the foldable iPhone timeline, although a fall 2026 launch remains on track according to Bloomberg. Similarly, the chance of Apple discussing its AI-supported smart glasses is low at 24%, as the product remains unannounced.

Apple is widely viewed by Wall Street as the biggest tech laggard on AI development, despite its deal with Google to implement the Gemini model.—Market Analysts on Kalshi

Looking Ahead: What to Expect from Apple’s Earnings Call

Investors will closely watch Apple's commentary on geopolitical issues like China and tariffs, which have immediate impacts on its supply chain and profitability. While excitement around new product innovations like foldable iPhones and smart glasses remains high, these are unlikely to be focal points in this earnings call. The leadership transition adds an extra layer of anticipation about Apple's strategic priorities moving forward.