Kalshi Traders Predict U.S. Oil Prices to Surpass $125 Amid Ongoing Iran Conflict

Traders on the Kalshi prediction platform foresee U.S. oil prices climbing above $125 per barrel in 2026, exceeding the previous wartime peak set during the Iran conflict. This forecast comes despite recent ceasefire announcements, reflecting ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.

The potential surge in oil prices matters as it signals continued volatility in global energy markets, impacting fuel costs and economic stability. With Brent crude hitting new post-war highs and no clear resolution in sight for key shipping routes, traders are adjusting their expectations for the year ahead.

Prediction Markets See Oil Prices Breaking 2026 Highs

Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures have yet to reach their 2026 peak, but Kalshi traders estimate a greater than 50% chance that prices will approach $127 per barrel this year. This is significantly above the April 7 closing high of nearly $113 per barrel. Additionally, there is a 63% probability that prices will exceed $120 per barrel.

Geopolitical Tensions Keep Oil Prices Elevated

Although a ceasefire was announced between the U.S. and Iran, oil prices remain elevated compared to their April 17 low of $82.59. Brent crude recently hit a new post-war high, surpassing $100 per barrel. However, prices dipped slightly after Iran submitted a revised peace proposal to the U.S., which President Donald Trump rejected, citing dissatisfaction with the terms.

The lack of a clear path to reopening the Strait of Hormuz and the continuation of the U.S. naval blockade contribute to the sustained price pressure. These factors have reversed some of the post-ceasefire declines in WTI prices.

Shifting Expectations on Extreme Price Levels

Before the ceasefire in early April, traders believed there was over a 50% chance that oil prices would exceed $150 per barrel. That probability has since dropped to 26%, indicating a narrower expected trading range despite the anticipation of new highs.

• More than 50% chance WTI hits nearly $127 per barrel in 2026
• 63% chance prices surpass $120 per barrel
• Brent crude reaches new post-war highs above $100
• Post-ceasefire price dip reversed amid ongoing tensions
• Probability of prices exceeding $150 per barrel reduced to 26%

What Lies Ahead for Oil Markets?

With no clear resolution to the Iran conflict and key maritime chokepoints remaining contested, oil markets are poised for continued volatility. Traders and investors will closely monitor geopolitical developments, peace negotiations, and supply disruptions that could push prices even higher or stabilize them in the months ahead.

“The April 7 high of $113 in Western Texas Intermediate crude futures will likely be broken,” traders on Kalshi say.—Kalshi Traders