Kalshi Bettors Now See Kevin Warsh's Fed Chair Confirmation Likely by Mid-May After DOJ Ends Powell Probe

Prediction market bettors on Kalshi have sharply increased their confidence that Kevin Warsh will be confirmed as Chairman of the Federal Reserve by mid-May. This shift follows the Department of Justice's announcement that it is dropping its criminal inquiry into current Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

The end of the DOJ probe removes a significant obstacle for Warsh's nomination, satisfying a key condition set by Senator Thom Tillis, a Republican on the Senate Banking Committee. This development greatly improves Warsh's chances of Senate approval and signals a likely confirmation in the coming weeks.

Surge in Warsh Confirmation Odds on Kalshi

Following the DOJ's decision to drop its investigation into Jerome Powell, bettors on Kalshi now assign an 86% probability that Kevin Warsh will be confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15. This is a dramatic increase from the roughly 30% chance estimated before the probe ended. The odds of confirmation by June 1 have also climbed to over 97%.

Senator Tillis' Role in Clearing the Path

Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina, a member of the Senate Banking Committee, had previously withheld support for advancing Warsh's nomination until the DOJ inquiry into Powell concluded. Tillis' vote is crucial because if he opposed the nomination, combined with Democratic opposition, Warsh's confirmation could have been blocked in committee.

With the probe now ended, the path for Warsh to move out of committee and onto the Senate floor appears much clearer, although Tillis has yet to issue an official statement following the DOJ's announcement.

Market Reactions and Broader Implications

The positive shift in Warsh's confirmation odds is mirrored on other prediction platforms like Polymarket, where the chance of confirmation by May 15 is now estimated at 81%, rising to 98% by June 1. This market confidence reflects the perceived removal of political hurdles.

While the probe ending today likely clears the path for Warsh's candidacy to make it out of committee, Tillis has not made an official statement since the inquiry was dropped.—CNBC

Looking Ahead: What Warsh's Confirmation Means

If confirmed, Kevin Warsh will take the helm of the Federal Reserve amid a complex economic landscape, balancing President Donald Trump's calls for lower interest rates with the Fed's independence in monetary policy. The swift resolution of the DOJ inquiry removes uncertainty, allowing markets and policymakers to focus on Warsh's potential impact.

Investors and observers will be closely watching the Senate Banking Committee's upcoming vote and the full Senate's decision, which now seem increasingly likely to favor Warsh's confirmation by early June.