US Faces Critical Supply Crunch as China Controls Rare Earths Amid Iran War

The Trump administration has revealed that Operation Epic Fury, the ongoing US military campaign against Iran, has already consumed $25 billion, with a staggering $200 billion supplemental budget requested to sustain the effort. This massive expenditure has drained critical missile and interceptor inventories, raising alarms about America’s ammunition reserves.

What remains largely unreported is the strategic vulnerability behind restocking these weapons: the United States depends heavily on China for rare earth materials essential to manufacturing advanced missile components. As Beijing tightens export controls, Washington faces a precarious supply chain that could jeopardize future military readiness.

Massive Weapon Stockpile Depletion in Iran and Ukraine

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) reports that the US has expended nearly half of its Precision Strike Missile stockpile and significant portions of its THAAD and Patriot PAC-3 interceptors in Iran alone. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine has drained one-third of Javelin missiles and a quarter of Stinger stockpiles, alongside millions of artillery rounds and rockets.

These combined demands have pushed the Pentagon to warn of a “near-term risk” of running out of ammunition, highlighting the urgent need to replenish critical defense inventories.

China’s Dominance Over Rare Earth Materials Threatens US Military Supply

Four key US weapon systems—Tomahawk cruise missiles, Patriot PAC-3 interceptors, JASSM-ER stealth missiles, and F-35 fighters—rely heavily on rare earth magnets and materials almost exclusively sourced from China. For example, samarium-cobalt magnets used in Tomahawks and Patriots, and neodymium-iron-boron magnets doped with dysprosium and terbium in JASSM-ERs and F-35s, are critical components that China controls through mining and export licensing.

• Tomahawks: Over 1,000 used in Iran, requiring samarium-cobalt magnets from China.
• Patriot PAC-3: 1,200+ interceptors expended, needing samarium-cobalt and yttrium oxide largely supplied by China.
• JASSM-ER: 1,100 missiles used, dependent on neodymium magnets doped with rare earths refined mainly in China.
• F-35 Lightning II: Contains 920 pounds of rare earths per aircraft, including materials under Chinese export control.

Beijing’s Strategic Leverage Through Export Controls

China has systematically tightened controls on critical materials since 2023, including gallium, germanium, antimony, tungsten, and rare earths. These restrictions have caused price surges and a 74% drop in rare-earth magnet exports. In 2025, China extended export licensing to products worldwide containing even trace amounts of Chinese-origin rare earths, effectively giving Beijing a chokehold on global defense supply chains.

“The goal of the upcoming US-China meeting is to ensure we can continue to get rare earths from the Chinese.”—U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer

Looking Ahead: The High Stakes of the Trump-Xi Summit

With President Trump scheduled to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in May 2026, rare earth materials are expected to dominate discussions. The US faces a critical dilemma: without Beijing’s cooperation, replenishing depleted weapon stockpiles may be impossible, leaving America vulnerable in ongoing and future conflicts.

This situation underscores a stark reality—military power is increasingly tied to control over the periodic table. The US must navigate this geopolitical challenge carefully to avoid being unprepared for the wars it has initiated and those yet to come.